Peck's Preview
Two items from Wednesday's Bills-Dolphins media day made me realize how much this Buffalo season has changed in the last month. As the 4-4 Bills prepare to play the 0-8 Dolphins, a few players were actually asked if this is a "trap" game for them. They were asked how to avoid looking past this game to next Sunday's showdown with the Patriots. Wow. A month ago, the Bills were that team that that people might have overlooked.
The second item is a tribute to how the Bills have overcome their injuries. Coy Wire, slated to replace John DiGiorgio (concussion) at middle linebacker, talked about having to fill DiGiorgio's shoes. Wow. Who could imagine how hard it would be to fill the shoes of an undrafted free agent who wasn't even a starter at the beginning of the season. But DiGiorgio, who has a concussion, has been the shining example of the Bills depth and the coaching staff's ability to get people ready to play.
Bills Offense vs. Dolphins Defense
As long as Miami still has Jason Taylor, they're still legit. The veteran defensive end has 16 sacks in 19 career games against the Bills. But he had just one in the two games last year, as he was mostly matched against Jason Peters. Taylor called the Bills left tackle "the best I've faced this year." The Bills have enough confidence in Peters to let him try to handle Taylor, although the guards, tight ends and backs will help out on the double-team.
Fellow veteran Zach Thomas may not play, as he still battles a concussion suffered in a car accident. While LB Channing Crowder is an active playmaker, not much else scares you about the Dolphins defense. They're on the 5th starter at strong safety and their 2nd at free safety.
The Miami defense ranks 6th in stopping the pass, but just 31st against the run. Teams have averaged 35 rushes per game against Miami, which leads me to believe the passing stats are a product of teams choosing not to pass because the run is so successful. Teams average 160 yards and 4.5 yards per rush vs. the Miami D.
It's up to J.P. Losman to show some consistency. That will allow him to keep the job in Dick Jauron's "performance-based" quarterback derby. Losman was very good against Cincinnati, but consistency has been a career-long problem. The Miami defense doesn't figure to make that tough. Marshawn Lynch should run all over that shoddy run defense. Lee Evans has a chance to be the third Bills receiver with three-straight 100 yard games. He's always played well in South Florida, with 6 TD in 19 games against Miami.
Bills Defense vs. Dolphins Offense
If the Bills defense can control that "zesty" Miami combination of "Lemon-Peelle," it won't be a sour trip to Florida. Sorry about that, couldn't resist. But QB Cleo Lemon and TE Justin Peele may be the most dangerous passing combination in the Dolphins playbook. Lemon is replacing Trent Green, and seemingly holding the job until 2nd round pick John Beck is ready...or the Dolphins take a QB with a top pick in the 2008 draft. Lemon played in the Bills game in Buffalo last year, and the Buffalo defenders remember a strong-armed thrower who moved well. He's been mostly below average in three starts this season. Dangerous WR Chris Chambers is gone, and so is injured RB Ronnie Brown. 1st round pick WR Ted Ginn Jr. (a HS & college teammate of Donte Whitner) and RB Jesse Chatman replace them. While is mostly a credit to Brown, the Dolphins have run well. Their average of 5.0 yards per rush is 2nd in the NFL.
But that's a good matchup for the Bills. Their run defense is coming off a 28 yards allowed performance against Cincinnati. In the last 5 games, their giving up just 78 yards per game. The defensive tackles (Tripplett, Williams, McCargo) have been very good, and so has LB Angelo Crowell. He leads the team in tackles. Seriously, if DiGiorgio can't play, it will hurt. He's been that good.
In the secondary, Terrence McGee is playing the best cornerback of his career. George Wilson was very good last week, and it appears he'll stay in the lineup even with Jim Leonhard healthy.
Special Teams
Roscoe Parrish has a thigh injury, and it he can't play, it will impact the Bills punt returns. But it's a good matchup for McGee, as Miami's kickoff coverage unit is last in the league, giving up almost 30 yards per return.
Ted Ginn Jr. is a dangerous, speedy return man although he hasn't broken a long one yet this year.
Player the Bills Must Stop
Jason Taylor. As it usually is when the Bills play the Dolphins. He is the best player on a bad team. If he can get to Losman, he can force turnovers and disrupt the Buffalo offense. Jason Peters is a legit Pro Bowl candidate, and this one of those games where he can prove it.
Prediction
Miami's lost 4 games by three points. But they're not a very good team right now due to injuries, poor drafting and a coaching transition. Lynch should and needs to have another 100 yard game. Losman should and needs to manage the game well, and play mistake-free football. It think all of that will happen, and the Bills will get their 4th win in a row. Buffalo 24-10.
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